The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025).

Background: Milk is considered one of the most important capital goods and essential sources of animal protein in the diet of the Egyptian family, as well as an effective means to improve the economic condition of farmers, considering this important view, the policymakers need accurate and advance information regarding future supply for planning on the both short and long term. Aim: The study aims to forecast the production of milk in Egypt during the period from 2022 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using time series data of milk production (MP) (1970-2021) obtained from the Central Agency for public mobilization and statistics (CAPMS). Methods: Augmented Dickey-Fullar Unit Root test, Partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and Autocorrelation function (ACF) of the time series sequence were used to judge the stationarity of the data. After confirming the stationarity of the data, the appropriate ARIMA model was selected based on certain statistical parameters like significant coefficients, values of adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criteria (AIC), Schwarz criterion (SC), and Standard Error of Regression. After the selection of the model based on the previous parameters, the verification of the model was employed by checking the residuals of the Correlogram-Q-Statistics test. Results: The most fitted model to predict the future levels of MP in Egypt was ARIMA (1, 1, and 3). Conclusion: Using the ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model, it could be forecasted that the production of milk in Egypt would show an increasing trend from 6,152.606 thousand tons in 2022 to 6,360.829 thousand tons in 2025.

Impact of resveratrol-loaded liposomal nanocarriers on heat-stressed broiler chickens: Effects on performance, sirtuin expression, oxidative stress regulators, and muscle building factors.

Climate change is considered to be the primary cause of heat stress (HS) in broiler chickens. Owing to the unique properties of extracted polyphenols, resveratrol-loaded liposomal nanoparticles (Resv-Lipo NPs) were first explored to mitigate the harmful effects of HS. The dietary role of Resv-Lipo NPs in heat-stressed birds was investigated based on their growth performance, antioxidative potential, and the expression of heat shock proteins, sirtuins, antioxidant, immune, and muscle-building related genes. A total of 250 1-day-old Ross 308 broiler chickens were divided into five experimental groups (5 replicates/group, 10 birds/replicate) for 42 days as follows: the control group was fed a basal diet and reared in thermoneutral conditions, and the other four HS groups were fed a basal diet supplemented with Resv-Lipo NPsI, II, and III at the levels of 0, 50, 100, and 150 mg/kg diet, respectively. The results indicated that supplementation with Resv-Lipo NP improved the growth rate of the HS group. The Resv-Lipo NP group showed the most significant improvement in body weight gain (p < 0.05) and FCR. Additionally, post-HS exposure, the groups that received Resv-Lipo NPs showed restored functions of the kidney and the liver as well as improvements in the lipid profile. The restoration occurred especially at higher levels in the Resv-Lipo NP group compared to the HS group. The elevated corticosterone and T3 and T4 hormone levels in the HS group returned to the normal range in the Resv-Lipo NPsIII group. Additionally, the HS groups supplemented with Resv-Lipo NPs showed an improvement in serum and muscle antioxidant biomarkers. The upregulation of the muscle and intestinal antioxidant-related genes (SOD, CAT, GSH-PX, NR-f2, and HO-1) and the muscle-building genes (myostatin, MyoD, and mTOR) was observed with increasing the level of Resv-Lipo NPs. Heat stress upregulated heat shock proteins (HSP) 70 and 90 gene expression, which was restored to normal levels in HS+Resv-Lipo NPsIII. Moreover, the expression of sirtuin 1, 3, and 7 (SIRT1, SIRT3, and SIRT7) genes was increased (p < 0.05) in the liver of the HS groups that received Resv-Lipo NPs in a dose-dependent manner. Notably, the upregulation of proinflammatory cytokines in the HS group was restored in the HS groups that received Resv-Lipo NPs. Supplementation with Resv-Lipo NPs can mitigate the harmful impact of HS and consequently improve the performance of broiler chickens.

Comparison of machine learning models for bluetongue risk prediction: a seroprevalence study on small ruminants.

BACKGROUND: Bluetongue (BT) is a disease of concern to animal breeders, so the question on their minds is whether they can predict the risk of the disease before it occurs. The main objective of this study is to enhance the accuracy of BT risk prediction by relying on machine learning (ML) approaches to help in fulfilling this inquiry. Several risk factors of BT that affect the occurrence and magnitude of animal infection with the virus have been reported globally. Additionally, risk factors, such as sex, age, species, and season, unevenly affect animal health and welfare. Therefore, the seroprevalence study data of 233 apparently healthy animals (125 sheep and 108 goats) from five different provinces in Egypt were used to analyze and compare the performance of the algorithms in predicting BT risk. RESULTS: Logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and a feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) were used to develop predictive BT risk models and compare their performance to the base model (LR). Model performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), accuracy, true positive rate (TPR), false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR), precision, and F1 score. The results indicated that RF performed better than other models, with an AUC score of 81%, ANN of 79.6%, and DT of 72.85%. In terms of performance and prediction, LR showed a much lower value (AUC = 69%). Upon further observation of the results, it was discovered that age and season were the most important predictor variables reported in classification and prediction. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study can be utilized to predict and control BT risk factors in sheep and goats, with better diagnostic discrimination in terms of accuracy, TPR, FNR, FPR, and precision of ML models over traditional and commonly used LR models. Our findings advocate that the implementation of ML algorithms, mainly RF, in farm decision making and prediction is a promising technique for analyzing cross-section studies, providing adequate predictive power and significant competence in identifying and ranking predictors representing potential risk factors for BT.

Effects of different feeding regimens with protease supplementation on growth, amino acid digestibility, economic efficiency, blood biochemical parameters, and intestinal histology in broiler chickens.

BACKGROUND: This study was conducted to estimate the impacts of using varied feeding regimens with or without protease supplementation on the growth performance, apparent amino acid ileal digestibility (AID%), economic efficiency, intestinal histology, and blood biochemical parameters of broiler chickens. Three hundred one-day-old chicks (Ross 308 broiler) were randomly allotted to a 3 × 2 factorial design. The experimental design consisted of three feeding regimens; FR1: a recommended protein SBM diet, FR2: a low-protein SBM diet, and FR3: a low-protein diet with the inclusion of 5% DDGS and 5% SFM, with or without protease supplementation (250 mg/kg). RESULTS: Increased feed intake and feed conversion ratio were observed in the FR3 treatment during the starter stage and decreased body weight and body weight gain during the grower stage. However, there was no significant effect of the different feeding regimens, protease supplementation, or interaction on the overall performance. The economic value of diets also remained unaffected by the different feeding regimens, protease supplementation, or interaction. Protease supplementation resulted in lowering the AID% of tryptophan and leucine. Reduced AID% of methionine was evident in the FR2 + VE and FR3 - VE treatments. Histological findings substantiated the FR3 treatment mediated a decrease in the duodenal and jejunal villous height (VH), jejunal villous width (VW), and ileal VW, whereas, increase in the ileal crypt depth (CD). The FR2 + VE treatment reduced the VH:CD ratio in the duodenum. The duodenal CD and the jejunal goblet cell count were reduced as a consequence of protease supplementation. The FR3 + VE treatment documented a rise in duodenal CD, while an increase in the jejunal goblet cell count was observed in the FR3 - VE treatment. The FR3 treatment enhanced the IgM serum levels compared to the FR1 and FR2 treatments. IgM serum levels were also elevated following protease supplementation. FR3 + VE treatment increased IgM serum levels. The highest serum ALP was found in the FR3 treatment, whereas the lowest level was obtained in the FR2 treatment. CONCLUSION: Low-protein SBM-based diets could be used without affecting the birds' growth. Altered morphometric measures of the intestine and increased IgM and ALP levels indicated the low-protein SBM/DDGS-SFM diet-induced damage of the intestinal histoarchitecture and immune system of birds. These different diets and protease supplementation failed to affect economic efficiency positively.

Growth performance, tissue precipitation, metallothionein and cytokine transcript expression and economics in response to different dietary zinc sources in growing rabbits.

The impact of different dietary zinc sources on the growth, serum metabolites, tissue zinc content, economics and relative expression of cytokine and metallothionein genes was evaluated in this study. A total of 120 35-day-old male New Zealand White (NZW) rabbits were randomly distributed into four dietary experimental groups with 10 replicates per group and 3 animals per replicate. The control group was fed basal diet with a Zn-free vitamin-mineral premix; the other three groups received control basal diet supplemented with 50 mg/kg level with zinc oxide (ZnO; as inorganic source), Zn-methionine (Zn-Met; as organic source) and zinc oxide nanoparticles (nano-ZnO). The results indicated that Zn-Met and nano-ZnO groups significantly improved body weight, daily weight gain (DWG), feed conversion ratio (FCR) and nutrient digestibility, as well as decreased mortality, compared to ZnO and control groups. Zn-Met and nano-ZnO significantly reduced serum total cholesterol but did not affect serum proteins and liver function. Nano-ZnO supplemented group also recorded the highest value of serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), insulin-like growth factor (IGF-1) and lysozymes compared to other groups. Nano-ZnO supplementation had increased hepatic Zn and Cu content and decreased faecal Zn content. Also nano-ZnO group recorded higher expression levels of genes encoding for metallothionein I and metallothionein II, interleukin-2 and interferon-γ in the liver of rabbits. The findings of this study demonstrated zinc nanoparticles, and organic zinc supplementation had improved growth performance and health status of growing rabbits than inorganic zinc oxide.

Thermal stress consequences on growth performance, immunological response, antioxidant status, and profitability of finishing broilers: transcriptomic profile change of stress-related genes.

The current study was conducted to investigate the impact of thermal stress on growth performance, blood biomarkers, metabolic hormones, immunological response, antioxidant activity, and expression of stress-related genes in broilers. One hundred and fifty one-day-old chicks (Ross 308) were utilized in this work. On the 21st day of age, birds were subjected to three environmentally controlled treatments with five replicate pens of 10 birds per each, representing an initial density of 10 birds/m2-control: reared in a thermoneutral condition; THS1 and THS2: exposed to 4 and 6 h of daily thermal stress at 40 ± 1 °C, respectively, until the 42 days of age. The results demonstrated that thermal stress for 4 and 6 h significantly reduced (P < 0.001) daily weight gain, daily feed intake, blood leukocyte and lymphocyte counts, serum immunoglobulins (IgM, IgA, IgG), and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), while serum levels of aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, glucose, cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, and lactate dehydrogenase were elevated relative to the thermoneutral group. Additionally, the corticosterone level and the ratio of heterophil:lymphocyte increased significantly (P < 0.001) in thermal-stressed groups. The antioxidant enzymes were affected by thermal stress as represented by a significant decrease in the activity of serum catalase (CAT) and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) along with an increase in malonaldehyde concentration. Thermal stress affected gene expression by upregulating heat shock protein 70, heat shock factors 1 and 3, nuclear factor kappa B, interleukin-4, and uncoupling protein, and downregulating GSH-Px, CAT, and IGF-1 transcript levels. However, no changes were observed in interleukin-2 expression levels. It can be concluded that thermal stress destructively influences productivity, physiological status, and gene expression by upregulating heat shock protein 70, heat shock factors 1 and 3, nuclear factor kappa B, interleukin-4, and uncoupling protein, and downregulating GSH-Px, CAT, and IGF-1 transcript levels of broiler chickens.

Growth Performance, Antioxidant Capacity, Lipid-Related Transcript Expression and the Economics of Broiler Chickens Fed Different Levels of Rutin.

The effects of rutin on growth performance, hematological and biochemical profiles, antioxidant capacity, economics and the relative expression of selected antioxidants and lipid-related genes were studied in broiler chickens over 42 days. A total of 200 one-day-old female Ross-308 broiler chickens were distributed into four groups, with five replicates of 10 individuals per replicate. They were fed with 0 (control), 0.25, 0.5 or 1 g rutin/kg supplementation in their basal diet. Dietary rutin supplementation, especially the 1 g/kg diet, increased body weight gain, the protein efficiency ratio (p < 0.001) and both white blood cell and lymphocyte counts (p < 0.001). However, it had no effect on total protein, albumin, globulin, or alanine transaminase. A high concentration of rutin (0.5 and 1 g/kg) also significantly reduced serum total cholesterol, triacylglycerol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations (p < 0.001), as well as malondialdehyde concentrations (p = 0.001). A high concentration diet also increased the activity of superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione peroxidase. Of the lipid-related genes examined, acetyl CoA carboxylase and fatty acid synthase were significantly down-regulated in the livers of rutin-fed individuals, whereas carnitine palmitoyl transferase 1 and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha were significantly up-regulated. Therefore, rutin supplementation at 1 g/kg has the potential to improve the productive performance and health status of broiler chickens.

Impact of thyme powder (Thymus vulgaris L.) supplementation on gene expression profiles of cytokines and economic efficiency of broiler diets.

This study was conducted in an attempt to evaluate the impact of thyme powder supplementation on broiler diets with respect to cytokine and mucin2 gene expressions. It was also our aim to evaluate the growth performance, blood biochemical and hematological profiles, and economic efficiency of the diet. A total of 120 1-day old chicks (Cobb 500) were divided into four groups on the basis of the diet. One group received a basal diet (control) while the others received a basal diet supplemented with 2, 5, or 8 g/kg of thyme powder. At 42 days of age, the chickens were weighed and euthanized, and then blood and tissue samples were collected for the purpose of analysis. Results obtained clearly indicated that thyme supplementation of the diet, especially at 5 g/kg, resulted in a significant increase in body weight and caused the increased body weight gain and feed intake (P Ë‚ 0.05) as well as augmented WBC and lymphocyte count and IgG and NO levels (P Ë‚ 0.001). The economic evaluation showed that birds fed on 8 g/kg thyme yielded the lowest net revenue and highest feed cost to produce 1 kg of live weight compared to the other treatments, while birds fed on 2 and 5 g/kg thyme did not differ significantly from values obtained for the controls. The lipid profile of the broilers was affected by thyme supplementation at 2 and 5 g/kg as represented by a significant decrease in serum cholesterol levels as well as low density lipoprotein levels, which is known to be associated with a corresponding increase in high-density lipoprotein (P Ë‚ 0.001). Furthermore, supplementation of thyme downregulated the pro-inflammatory mediators and increased the expression of mucin2 mRNA in the jejunum of chickens. It can be concluded that thyme supplementation in the diet of broilers at 5 g/kg has the potential to favorably influence productive performance via an improvement in the immune status of the broiler.

Economic impacts of calving season and parity on reproduction and production traits of buffaloes in the sub-tropics.

In order to enhance the profitability of dairy buffaloes, it is necessary to develop an understanding of the factors affecting their reproduction and milk production ability. Thus, the objective of this study was to elucidate the economic impacts of calving season and parity on reproduction and production indices of Egyptian dairy buffaloes (1180) reared under subtropical environmental conditions. Buffaloes calving in the autumn season had lesser days open, calving interval, and service per conception (108.25 days, 414.16 days, and 1.67, respectively), while spring calvers showed the greater calculations (210.27 days, 522.82 days, and 2.39, respectively). The buffaloes calving for the first time had the longest days open, calving interval, and number of services per conception among different parities (176.21 days, 490.05 days, and 2.18, respectively), then decreased thereafter. Furthermore, buffaloes calving in the winter season had the significantly highest total milk yield, milk revenue, total revenue, profit, and profit/cost ratio (1981.4 kg, 1769.1 $, 2019.5 $, 662.9 $, and 0.49, respectively) in comparison with other seasons. The total milk yield, lactation period, profit, and profit/cost ratio were increased to reach the peak values in the fourth parity (2051.5 kg, 252.44 days, 674.8 $, and 0.48, respectively), then decreased thereafter. In conclusion, buffaloes at the fourth parity and those calving in the winter season had the best milk yield, milk revenue, total revenue, and profit/cost ratio. Therefore, breeders must pay more attention to calving season and parity as they play an important role in the farm profitability and productivity and should counteract the adverse effects of periodical and seasonal changes. It is recommended to make estrus synchronization for more calvings in the winter season. Finally, choose the best lifetime for keeping the animal in production.